America Just Drove a Wedge Into Europe — and the EU Has No Unified Way to Respond

(An initial reaction on the NSS – a detailed policy brief will follow later today for subscribers)

Published: 6 December 2025

The Biden–Trump transition was always going to reshape transatlantic relations. But few expected the rupture to be so blunt, so deliberate, and so strategically disruptive.
Yet that is exactly what happened when the Trump administration released its 2025 National Security Strategy — a document that claims Europe is on the brink of “civilizational collapse” due to migration, demographic change, and the influence of its own EU institutions.

This is no routine foreign-policy critique. It is an explosive intervention directly aligned with the talking points of Europe’s sovereigntist and populist governments. And it comes at the worst possible moment for a European Union already struggling with internal fractures, a stalled war in Ukraine, and a renewed push from the Commission for deeper federalisation.

The United States has now openly taken sides in Europe’s internal political war — and the consequences will be profound.

A Divided Europe Meets an Unfriendly U.S. Narrative

The claim that Europe is undergoing cultural “unravelling” is not new in Washington’s right-wing ecosystem. What is new is that it has been elevated into official U.S. strategic doctrine.

This lands directly in Europe’s most volatile political fault line: the battle between those who want deeper integration and those who want to claw powers back to national capitals.

The European Commission is pursuing a bold agenda — common migration screening, defence cooperation, industrial policy, and rule-of-law conditionality. In response, Viktor Orbán, Slovakia’s Robert Fico, and now potentially the incoming Czech government are building a sovereigntist firewall to resist anything resembling federalisation.

Trump’s NSS hands these governments the greatest gift imaginable: ideological validation from the world’s most powerful nation.

Orbán has spent a decade arguing that Brussels is blind to Europe’s “real” identity crisis. Washington has now endorsed his worldview almost verbatim.

Why the EU Cannot Respond as One

The EU’s strength has always come from unity. The NSS undermines precisely that.

A coordinated EU condemnation is unlikely for three reasons:

First, the sovereigntist governments won’t sign it.

Orbán will praise the document. Fico will reference it in domestic battles. Prague may follow. With unanimity required for major foreign-policy statements, the EU’s official voice is effectively vetoed.

Second, a number of “swing states” won’t want to pick a fight with the U.S.

Italy, Greece, Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria — all will see little political upside in confronting Washington, especially on a cultural issue that resonates with parts of their own electorates.

Third, the EU’s migration and identity divides cut across domestic party lines.

Even pro-European governments must manage electorates increasingly anxious about migration, integration, and demographic change. The NSS weaponises these debates, making consensus harder, not easier.

The result: the EU’s silence will not reflect agreement — it will reflect paralysis.

A Strategic Shift: Washington Has Chosen Its European Allies

For decades, the U.S. remained neutral in internal EU political debates. No longer.

The NSS effectively anoints a new set of preferred partners inside Europe — not Berlin, Paris or Brussels, but Budapest, Bratislava, and elements of the Czech and Austrian right.

This is a profound shift.
It means that the sovereigntists are no longer domestic challengers to the EU order; they are now backed by a global power.

It also means the European Commission’s long-running rule-of-law disputes with Hungary and Slovakia will be reframed by those governments as “political persecution encouraged by Brussels but opposed by Washington.”

The U.S. may not intend to undermine the EU.
But the practical effect is exactly that.

Europe’s New Reality: A Two-Speed Union Is Now Inevitable

If the NSS accelerates any trend, it is the quiet but steady evolution toward a two-tier Europe.

• Core Europe — Germany, France, the Nordics, Benelux, Iberia — will push ahead with federalisation, strategic autonomy, defence coordination, industrial policy, and migration reform.

• The sovereigntist bloc will increasingly position itself as a counter-model, retaining treaty membership but resisting all deeper integration.

• Swing states will cherry-pick between the two pathways.

This is not federalisation by choice.
It is federalisation by survival.

Trump’s NSS confirms to Brussels that the U.S. can no longer be relied upon to uphold the post-war European order. If Europe wants to remain a geopolitical actor, it will have to consolidate internally — even if that means leaving some members behind.

Ukraine Will Become Another Casualty

The NSS arrives at a delicate moment in the war.

Some EU countries — Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics — remain fully committed to Ukraine’s defence and long-term security. Others want de-escalation and early settlement.

The U.S. intervention will not unify these positions. It will deepen them.

Orbán and Fico will point to the NSS as evidence that Brussels has mishandled Europe’s strategic direction. They will use it to obstruct EU funding for Ukraine, oppose sanctions, and portray themselves as the responsible guardians of national interest.

This is a gift to the Kremlin.
A divided Europe is far easier to manage than a united one.

China and Russia Are the Silent Beneficiaries

Europe’s difficulties rarely stay contained within Europe.

· Russia benefits because the EU’s sanctions, military support, and political unity become harder to maintain.

· China benefits because a divided EU cannot form a coherent policy on de-risking, technology dependence, or industrial competition.

For Beijing, Europe’s fragmentation is an open invitation for asymmetric influence and strategic investment — the exact dynamic the EU has been trying to contain.

The West Now Speaks With Two Voices

The deeper geopolitical consequence is the erosion of the transatlantic idea itself.

For the first time since 1945:

• The U.S. and the EU pursue explicitly different visions for Europe’s political future.

• The U.S. is siding with anti-federalist forces inside the EU.

• The narrative of a “declining Europe” has become embedded in official U.S. doctrine.

What Washington calls a cultural warning, Brussels sees as a political attack.

And what the EU views as responsible integration, parts of Washington now frame as ideological decay.

This divergence is not tactical. It is structural.

Europe Must Now Decide Whether to Drift or to Act

The EU has two choices.

It can continue to drift into factionalism, allowing Washington’s domestic culture wars to become Europe’s external geopolitical pressure. Or it can recognise that the era of automatic transatlantic convergence is over — and start building its own strategic centre of gravity.

This requires:

• a credible European defence capability

• a realistic migration model

• a reformed decision-making system

• and a willingness to proceed with integration even without unanimous consent

Europe has spent decades debating these ideas.
Now they become necessities.

Washington has made its move.
Brussels must respond — not with words, but with architecture.

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Leon Vermeulen is an independent historian and commentator specialising in European memory, conflict, and reconciliation.